Contested facts · veracity-3pt · fact-dark-matter-01

Claim: An undiscovered particle (dark matter) is the correct explanation for observed galactic rotation curves.

0.33

Divergence

0.93

Avg stability

Refusal rate

Models

Where each model stands

CCG

refutedcontestedsupported

ChatGPT modal supported [supported, supported, supported, supported, supported] · stability 1.00

1 supported 0.92 The answer states: “Particle dark matter is the most compelling unified explanation for rotation curves plus a wide range of independent observations… It is the favored working hypothesis in cosmology and astrophysics,” while noting it is not yet directly detected.
2 supported 0.95 The answer states the claim is "Mostly true" and that there is "High confidence that some form of non-baryonic, largely collisionless dark matter exists and that it explains rotation curves," while noting caveats.
3 supported 0.92 "The claim is plausible and is the leading explanation in cosmology and astrophysics... however a specific particle has not yet been detected and alternative theories exist" — the answer endorses particle dark matter as the best current explanation while noting it is not proven.
4 supported 0.95 The answer states that particle dark matter "is the leading scientific explanation and is strongly supported by multiple, independent lines of evidence" and concludes it is "the best and most widely supported explanation" for rotation curves (while noting it's provisional).
5 supported 0.90 The answer states the particle/nonbaryonic dark matter hypothesis "is the leading explanation and is strongly supported by multiple, independent lines of evidence" and concludes that "for explaining galactic rotation curves specifically, a halo of nonbaryonic dark matter ... is a simple, natural explanation."

Claude modal contested [contested, supported, contested, contested, contested] · stability 0.80

1 contested 0.92 The answer acknowledges dark matter as 'the best current explanation' and 'probably correct,' but emphasizes it is 'not yet proven' and identifies legitimate alternative explanations (MOND, baryonic dark matter). It explicitly states the claim 'conflates two things' and that treating it as 'confirmed fact rather than best hypothesis' glosses over real unknowns, presenting multiple viable competing
2 supported 0.85 The answer states that dark matter explanation is the 'mainstream consensus' with 'substantial support' and 'strong supporting evidence' from multiple independent observations including rotation curve anomalies, gravitational lensing, and CMB measurements. While acknowledging uncertainties and alternative explanations, the answer clearly indicates the claim is more supported than not.
3 contested 0.92 The answer states that while dark matter is 'the leading hypothesis with strong supporting evidence,' the claim that it is 'the correct explanation' overstates the case because 'Not definitively proven' and 'Alternatives haven't been ruled out.' The answer explicitly discusses competing explanations like MOND that remain viable, characterizing dark matter as favored but not proven.
4 contested 0.85 The answer presents dark matter as 'the best current explanation' while explicitly stating it is 'not definitively proven' and that 'the existence of alternatives means this remains genuinely open to challenge.' It acknowledges both substantial empirical support and legitimate challenges, positioning the claim as scientifically motivated but not conclusively established.
5 contested 0.92 The answer states the claim is 'plausible but not proven' and that 'calling it "the correct explanation" overstates certainty.' It acknowledges dark matter is viable and mainstream while highlighting that alternative explanations like MOND exist and the evidence remains indirect, making the claim contested rather than definitively supported or refuted.

Gemini modal contested [contested, contested, contested, contested, contested] · stability 1.00

1 contested 0.90 The response concludes that the claim is 'scientifically favored, but unproven' and notes that 'neither explanation has closed the debate entirely,' highlighting both supporting evidence and competing theories like modified gravity.
2 contested 0.90 The answer notes that while particle dark matter is the 'predominant scientific consensus,' it 'cannot be definitively labeled "correct"' due to lack of direct detection and viable competing alternatives like modified gravity (MOND).
3 contested 0.90 The answer notes that while dark matter represents the mainstream consensus, it faces challenges (such as lack of direct detection) and active alternatives like modified gravity, concluding that 'the question remains one of the most significant open problems in fundamental physics.'
4 contested 0.90 The answer notes that while dark matter is the 'predominant scientific consensus,' it faces challenges, lacks direct detection, and coexists with competing theories like MOND, concluding that it remains a 'scientific hypothesis rather than a conclusively closed case.'
5 contested 0.90 The answer notes that while it represents the 'predominant consensus,' asserting it as definitively correct is 'premature' because no particle has been directly detected, presenting valid competing explanations like modified gravity (MOND).

Change over time

No change from the prior run — every model's modal stance held.

Every stance label is a derived judgment over the model's free-text answer, kept auditable against the original transcript in the run's raw data. Method: /methodology.