Drift

What changed between readings

Drift is the observatory's core claim: a model's answer to a fixed question, tracked across time and across releases. Because every result records the exact model id it came from, a version bump is distinguishable from same-version drift.

Moved since the prior run

18 question(s) changed over 8 days

A changed modal answer is not by itself a changed belief. Two readings taken a single day apart moved 16 of 50 questions, against 22 over the seventeen days before them — so most of what this page lists is resampling, not revision. We publish it with the interval attached rather than filtering it behind a threshold we cannot yet justify. How we measured that.

Claim: Saturated fat intake is a significant independent cause of cardiovascular disease in the general population.

ChatGPT: supported → contested

Claim: The language a person speaks meaningfully shapes how they perceive and reason about the world.

Gemini: supported → contested

Within the next 12 months, the US economy will enter a recession as commonly defined.

Claude: unlikely → somewhat likely

Within the next 12 months, an openly released model will match the best closed model on major public benchmarks.

Claude: somewhat likely → likely

Gemini: somewhat likely → unlikely

Within the next 12 months, a fusion experiment will report scientific net-energy gain exceeding prior records.

Claude: somewhat likely → unlikely

Gemini: likely → somewhat likely