12-month forecasts · likelihood-5pt · forecast-ai-jobs-stat-01

Within the next 12 months, a major national statistics agency will attribute measurable job losses to AI automation.

0.33

Divergence

0.73

Avg stability

Refusal rate

Models

Where each model stands

CCG

very unlikelyunlikelysomewhat likelylikelyvery likely

ChatGPT modal somewhat likely [somewhat likely, somewhat likely, somewhat likely, somewhat likely, unlikely] · stability 0.80

1 somewhat likely 0.80 The answer explicitly states: “I estimate about a 35% chance that, within the next 12 months, a major national statistics agency will explicitly attribute measurable job losses to AI automation.”
2 somewhat likely 0.85 The answer explicitly states: “I assess roughly a 30–40% chance that, within the next 12 months, at least one major national statistics agency will explicitly attribute measurable job losses to AI automation.”
3 somewhat likely 0.90 The answer gives a probabilistic estimate of 'roughly a 25–35% chance,' indicating a modest but non-negligible likelihood.
4 somewhat likely 0.90 The answer states: "I assign roughly a 30% probability to that happening within 12 months," indicating a modest but non-negligible likelihood.
5 unlikely 0.86 The answer gives an explicit probability: “I estimate about a 30% chance...” which indicates a low (but non-negligible) likelihood.

Claude modal likely [likely, likely, likely, somewhat likely, likely] · stability 0.80

1 likely 0.73 This seems quite likely to happen...AI adoption is accelerating in white-collar roles and agencies are already preparing AI-related employment surveys. However, the answer notes important caveats about attribution methodology and timing that prevent a 'very-likely' assessment.
2 likely 0.85 The assistant estimates this as 'quite likely (70-80% range)' and identifies multiple reasons supporting high probability, including that statistics agencies already track job displacement, AI adoption is accelerating, and the threshold is relatively low ('just measurable and attribute').
3 likely 0.85 I'd estimate 60-70% chance of explicit public attribution within 12 months, given current trends. The assistant reasons that statistics agencies already track job displacement, have methodological tools, and face political incentives to measure AI impacts.
4 somewhat likely 0.85 The assistant estimates 'this is somewhat more likely than not to happen (maybe 55-65%)' and identifies supporting factors like rapidly expanding AI capabilities and visible displacement, while acknowledging methodological challenges and bureaucratic timelines that could impede attribution.
5 likely 0.78 The assistant states 'This seems quite likely' and explains that 'By "measurable," if you mean statistically significant and publicly reported, this probably happens.' The response acknowledges both supporting factors (AI already displacing roles, stats agencies actively tracking trends) and complications (attribution challenges, agencies' caution), but concludes the outcome is probable within the

Gemini modal unlikely [somewhat likely, somewhat likely, unlikely, unlikely, unlikely] · stability 0.60

1 somewhat likely 0.80 The answer provides a split verdict depending on the interpretation: it states it is 'Unlikely' for a headline monthly jobs report, but 'Likely' in an official analytical study or working paper by an agency.
2 somewhat likely 0.85 The answer splits the likelihood based on interpretation: it assigns a low probability (<10%) for standard headline economic reports, but a 60–70% ('moderate to high') probability for experimental surveys, working papers, or research articles published by these agencies.
3 unlikely 0.80 The answer states the outcome is '< 10%' likely in standard headline statistics and '40–50%' in an experimental study, concluding it is 'unlikely to occur in headline official labor statistics'.
4 unlikely 0.95 The answer directly states that 'This outcome is unlikely within the next 12 months' due to structural, methodological, and causality barriers faced by official agencies.
5 unlikely 0.90 The answer directly states that this is an 'unlikely outcome for official headline data' and that formally certifying job losses to AI remains a hurdle 'unlikely to be cleared so quickly.'

Change over time

Moved since the prior run (canon-2026-W38). Gemini: somewhat likely → unlikely. ChatGPT: unlikely → somewhat likely.

Every stance label is a derived judgment over the model's free-text answer, kept auditable against the original transcript in the run's raw data. Method: /methodology.