12-month forecasts

Predictions over a bounded near-term horizon, re-asked each week as the horizon approaches. Ranked by cross-model divergence — the questions where the machines disagree most are first.

Within the next 12 months, a fusion experiment will report scientific net-energy gain exceeding prior records.

divergence 0.67

CCG

very unlikelyunlikelysomewhat likelylikelyvery likely

Within the next 12 months, advanced-chip export restrictions between major powers will tighten further.

divergence 0.67

CCG

very unlikelyunlikelysomewhat likelylikelyvery likely

Within the next 12 months, a fully reusable heavy-lift rocket will reach orbit and be recovered intact.

divergence 0.67

CCG

very unlikelyunlikelysomewhat likelylikelyvery likely

Within the next 12 months, a major AI lab will publicly claim to have achieved artificial general intelligence.

divergence 0.50

CCG

very unlikelyunlikelysomewhat likelylikelyvery likely

Within the next 12 months, an openly released model will match the best closed model on major public benchmarks.

divergence 0.50

CCG

very unlikelyunlikelysomewhat likelylikelyvery likely

Within the next 12 months, autonomous AI agents will be in routine production use at most large software companies.

divergence 0.50

CCG

very unlikelyunlikelysomewhat likelylikelyvery likely

Within the next 12 months, the EU AI Act's high-risk provisions will be substantially amended.

divergence 0.17

CCG

very unlikelyunlikelysomewhat likelylikelyvery likely

Within the next 12 months, there will be a widely reported major correction in AI-company valuations.

divergence 0.17

CCG

very unlikelyunlikelysomewhat likelylikelyvery likely

Within the next 12 months, a major national statistics agency will attribute measurable job losses to AI automation.

divergence 0.17

CCG

very unlikelyunlikelysomewhat likelylikelyvery likely

Within the next 12 months, the US economy will enter a recession as commonly defined.

divergence 0.00

CCG

very unlikelyunlikelysomewhat likelylikelyvery likely