12-month forecasts · likelihood-5pt · forecast-ai-regulation-01

Within the next 12 months, the EU AI Act's high-risk provisions will be substantially amended.

0.17

Divergence

0.77

Avg stability

Refusal rate

Models

Where each model stands

CCG

very unlikelyunlikelysomewhat likelylikelyvery likely

ChatGPT modal unlikely [no position, unlikely, somewhat likely, unlikely, likely] · stability 0.50

1 no position 0.90 The answer says: “I can’t confirm that as a fact because I don’t have real‑time access... Short answer - Unknown / not verifiable here,” declining to take a definitive position.
2 unlikely 0.85 The answer states: “Unlikely: a full, substantial re‑write of the high‑risk regime via the ordinary legislative procedure within 12 months is improbable unless there is exceptional political urgency.”
3 somewhat likely 0.72 The answer says a ‘wholesale, substantive amendment’ of the Regulation is unlikely, but notes that ‘substantive changes to which systems are classified as high‑risk ... could plausibly happen within 12 months via delegated acts.’
4 unlikely 0.80 "Short answer: Not very likely if by 'substantially amended' you mean Parliament/Council changing the core law." The answer does note non‑legislative changes (delegated/implementing acts) are more likely, but rejects formal amendment in 12 months.
5 likely 0.80 The answer explicitly states: “It is plausible and even likely you will see important and ‘substantial in practice’ changes within 12 months via delegated acts and guidance,” while noting it cannot confirm post‑June 2024 facts.

Claude modal unlikely [unlikely, unlikely, unlikely, unlikely, unlikely] · stability 1.00

1 unlikely 0.85 The answer states that 'substantial amendments are unlikely soon' due to the legislation just entering force, slow EU legislative processes, and lack of political momentum. It suggests amendments are more likely post-2026 after implementation challenges emerge, with only regulatory guidance and delegated acts expected in the near term.
2 unlikely 0.85 The assistant states that substantial amendment is 'quite uncertain' and 'a high bar,' emphasizing that the AI Act was recently finalized after years of negotiation and major EU legislation rarely gets substantially revised immediately after adoption. They assess that 'tweaks or clarifications are more probable than major rewrites' within 12 months, with more realistic timing being 2025-2026.
3 unlikely 0.85 The assistant explicitly states 'it's unlikely within 12 months' and explains that major EU legislative amendments 'typically require years, not months' with 'no active amendment process currently underway.' They note the regulation only entered force in August 2023 and high-risk provisions don't take effect until August 2026, making substantial amendment unlikely in the immediate 12-month timefra
4 unlikely 0.88 The assistant states 'Why substantial amendments seem unlikely in 12 months' and explains that 'EU legislative processes are typically slow; major changes usually take years' and 'There's no clear political momentum for large-scale revisions' since the framework is very recent and represents years of negotiation.
5 unlikely 0.85 The Act is more likely to see refinement through regulatory guidance, delegated acts, and enforcement practices over the next 12 months rather than 'substantial amendments' to the core legal text. Major EU legislation typically doesn't get substantially revised so soon after entry into force in August 2024.

Gemini modal very unlikely [very unlikely, very unlikely, very unlikely, very unlikely, unlikely] · stability 0.80

1 very unlikely 1.00 The answer directly states that the statement is 'highly unlikely to prove true' and describes a substantial amendment as 'virtually out of the question'.
2 very unlikely 0.99 The answer directly states that the premise is 'highly improbable' and that a substantial amendment is 'virtually impossible from a political, legal, and procedural standpoint.'
3 very unlikely 0.99 The answer opens by stating the proposition is 'highly improbable' and concludes that 'the EU AI Act's high-risk provisions will not be substantially amended within the next 12 months.'
4 very unlikely 0.99 The answer directly states that the prediction is 'highly unlikely to come true' and concludes that substantial legislative amendment within 12 months is 'nearly impossible.'
5 unlikely 0.90 A formal rewrite of the AI Act’s primary statutory provisions within 12 months is generally considered improbable due to EU legislative timelines and the recent completion of the trilogue process.

Change over time

No change from the prior run — every model's modal stance held.

Every stance label is a derived judgment over the model's free-text answer, kept auditable against the original transcript in the run's raw data. Method: /methodology.