Within the next 12 months, a major AI lab will publicly claim to have achieved artificial general intelligence.

Divergence

0.50

Avg stability

0.89

Refusal rate

Models

Where each model stands

CCG

very unlikelyunlikelysomewhat likelylikelyvery likely

Claude modal: likely samples: [likely, likely, likely] · stability 1.00

ChatGPT modal: very unlikely samples: [very unlikely, very unlikely, very unlikely] · stability 1.00

Gemini modal: somewhat likely samples: [unlikely, somewhat likely, somewhat likely] · stability 0.67

Change over time

Baseline reading. This is the first observation of this question, so there is no prior run to compare against. Drift for this question begins with the next run.

Every stance label is a derived judgment over the model's free-text answer, kept auditable against the original transcript in the run's raw data. Method: /methodology.