Dokaz Industries / Doxa

12-month forecasts · likelihood-5pt · forecast-agi-claim-01

Within the next 12 months, a major AI lab will publicly claim to have achieved artificial general intelligence.

0.00
Divergence
0.93
Avg stability
13%
Refusal rate
3
Models

Where each model stands

CCG
very unlikelyunlikelysomewhat likelylikelyvery likely
ChatGPT modal unlikely [unlikely, somewhat likely, unlikely, unlikely, unlikely] · stability 0.80
  • 1 unlikely 0.86 The answer gives a low probability estimate: “about a 10% chance (plausible range ~5–20%) that, within the next 12 months, a major AI lab will publicly claim it has achieved ... AGI.”
  • 2 somewhat likely 0.90 The answer explicitly gives "about a 25% chance" ("I put it at ~1 in 4") that a major AI lab will publicly claim AGI within 12 months, indicating a modest but non-negligible probability.
  • 3 unlikely 0.85 The answer explicitly assigns 'roughly a 20% chance (plausible range 10–35%)' that a major lab will claim AGI within 12 months, indicating a low probability.
  • 4 unlikely 0.90 The answer gives a ~20% chance and describes it as a "non-negligible but still relatively low probability (~1 in 5)."
  • 5 unlikely 0.90 The answer states an explicit probability: “I estimate ~20% that a major AI lab will publicly claim to have achieved ‘AGI’ within the next 12 months,” which corresponds to an unlikely event.
Claude modal unlikely [unlikely, unlikely, unlikely, unlikely, unlikely] · stability 1.00
  • 1 unlikely 0.85 The assistant estimates probability at 'quite low probability—maybe 5-15%' and emphasizes that major labs are 'more cautious now, not less, after reputation hits from overclaiming' and that 'the gap between current systems and something genuinely general remains enormous.'
  • 2 unlikely 0.90 The assistant estimates 15-25% probability, explicitly noting this is below the 50% threshold that would constitute 'likely' or higher. The detailed analysis emphasizes factors pushing lower, including companies' actual caution about the AGI label and reputational risks, with the assessment that 'explicit AGI declarations (rare)' are unlikely within 12 months.
  • 3 unlikely 0.87 The AI estimates this at roughly '15-25% likely' and emphasizes multiple factors pushing against the claim including reputational risk, a high bar in practice, caution from leadership, and the short 12-month timeframe. While acknowledging some upward pressures from definitional flexibility and marketing incentives, the overall framing and probability range indicates skepticism about whether a majo
  • 4 unlikely 0.85 The assistant estimates 15-25% probability, which falls in the 'unlikely' range. They acknowledge competitive pressures and definitional ambiguity could push the probability higher, but emphasize that major labs have been cautious, face reputational risks, and the 12-month window is short.
  • 5 unlikely 0.92 The AI estimates 15-25% likely and emphasizes that 'the most likely scenario is continued progress on narrow capabilities without anyone credibly claiming the AGI label.' It cites major labs' recent caution, high expert skepticism, significant reputational risks, and lack of demonstrated breakthroughs as reasons a credible AGI claim is improbable.
Gemini modal unlikely [unlikely, unlikely, no position, no position, unlikely] · stability 1.00
  • 1 unlikely 0.90 The answer states that 'it is relatively unlikely that a reputable lab will make a flat, unreserved claim of having achieved full AGI within the next year.'
  • 2 unlikely 0.95 In its final verdict, the answer explicitly states that 'It is unlikely that a major lab will make an unqualified public claim of having achieved "Full AGI" in the next 12 months'.
  • 3 no position 0.85 The answer declines to take a stance, stating that the topic 'is a subject of significant debate' with 'compelling arguments on both sides' before summarizing external viewpoints.
  • 4 no position 0.95 The answer declines to take a stance, stating that 'Perspectives within the field vary widely' and offering balanced arguments for both why a claim is likely and why it is unlikely.
  • 5 unlikely 0.90 The answer directly states that 'a flat, unqualified declaration that "We have achieved AGI" remains unlikely, though not impossible.'

Change over time

No change from the prior run — every model's modal stance held.

Every stance label is a derived judgment over the model's free-text answer, kept auditable against the original transcript in the run's raw data. Method: /methodology.