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Dokaz Industries / Doxa / Canon / 12-month forecasts
12-month forecasts · likelihood-5pt · forecast-open-parity-01

Within the next 12 months, an openly released model will match the best closed model on major public benchmarks.

Divergence
0.50
Avg stability
0.89
Refusal rate
0%
Models
3

Where each model stands

CCG
very unlikelyunlikelysomewhat likelylikelyvery likely
Claude modal: likely samples: [likely, likely, likely] · stability 1.00
ChatGPT modal: very unlikely samples: [very unlikely, very unlikely, unlikely] · stability 0.67
Gemini modal: very unlikely samples: [very unlikely, very unlikely, very unlikely] · stability 1.00

Change over time

Baseline reading. This is the first observation of this question, so there is no prior run to compare against. Drift for this question begins with the next run.

Every stance label is a derived judgment over the model's free-text answer, kept auditable against the original transcript in the run's raw data. Method: /methodology.