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Dokaz Industries / Doxa / Canon / 12-month forecasts
12-month forecasts · likelihood-5pt · forecast-reusable-rocket-01

Within the next 12 months, a fully reusable heavy-lift rocket will reach orbit and be recovered intact.

Divergence
0.67
Avg stability
0.67
Refusal rate
0%
Models
3

Where each model stands

CCG
very unlikelyunlikelysomewhat likelylikelyvery likely
Claude modal: very unlikely samples: [unlikely, very unlikely, somewhat likely] · stability 0.33
ChatGPT modal: very likely samples: [very likely, very likely, very likely] · stability 1.00
Gemini modal: likely samples: [likely, very likely, likely] · stability 0.67

Change over time

Baseline reading. This is the first observation of this question, so there is no prior run to compare against. Drift for this question begins with the next run.

Every stance label is a derived judgment over the model's free-text answer, kept auditable against the original transcript in the run's raw data. Method: /methodology.