Dokaz Industries / Doxa

12-month forecasts · likelihood-5pt · forecast-chip-export-01

Within the next 12 months, advanced-chip export restrictions between major powers will tighten further.

0.17
Divergence
0.63
Avg stability
7%
Refusal rate
3
Models

Where each model stands

CCG
very unlikelyunlikelysomewhat likelylikelyvery likely
ChatGPT modal likely [likely, likely, very likely, likely, very likely] · stability 0.60
  • 1 likely 0.86 The answer states a 'High (I’d estimate 65–85% probability)' that restrictions will tighten within 12 months, indicating a strong affirmative forecast.
  • 2 likely 0.90 The answer states: 'I estimate a roughly 60–75% chance that advanced-chip export controls among major powers will tighten in the next 12 months' and calls tightening 'plausible and likely.'
  • 3 very likely 0.93 The answer opens with: "Short answer: Very likely. I assess a high probability that advanced-chip export restrictions ... will tighten further in the next 12 months."
  • 4 likely 0.90 The answer begins: 'Short answer: Likely. I estimate a high probability (roughly 65–80%) that advanced-chip export restrictions... will tighten further.'
  • 5 very likely 0.90 The answer explicitly states 'Short answer: Very likely. I assess a high probability that export restrictions... will tighten further' and reiterates 'further tightening... is highly likely' in the bottom line.
Claude modal likely [likely, likely, somewhat likely, likely, likely] · stability 0.80
  • 1 likely 0.72 The assistant identifies multiple supporting factors including existing US tightening, strategic competition narrative, and bipartisan consensus, while acknowledging complicating factors. The conclusion that 'incremental refinements more likely than dramatic new restrictions' and discussion of 'possible coordinated multilateral moves' suggests the assistant believes further tightening is more prob
  • 2 likely 0.72 Supporting factors like US restrictions steadily escalating, strong domestic political pressure, and international alignment suggest this 'seems reasonably likely.' However, the answer acknowledges uncertainty about magnitude and implementation pace, preventing a 'very-likely' classification.
  • 3 somewhat likely 0.72 The assistant states 'This seems moderately likely' and identifies multiple supporting factors including US escalation, bipartisan consensus, and EU alignment, while acknowledging complicating factors like implementation challenges and economic costs. The assessment concludes that 'measurable new restrictions or expanded scopes' are 'reasonably likely' within the timeframe.
  • 4 likely 0.85 The assistant explicitly states 'Incremental tightening seems >70% likely' and characterizes the overall assessment as 'likely but worth unpacking the nuances,' indicating a clear lean toward the proposition while acknowledging uncertainty about the extent of tightening.
  • 5 likely 0.72 Further tightening in the direction of restrictions seems more likely than reversal... We might see incremental clarifications, increased enforcement of existing rules, and regional divergence. The answer identifies multiple supporting factors (US escalation, geopolitical competition, political pressure) while acknowledging genuine uncertainty about magnitude and speed rather than direction.
Gemini modal very likely [very likely, no position, very likely, likely, somewhat likely] · stability 0.50
  • 1 very likely 0.95 The assessment that advanced-chip export restrictions will tighten further over the next 12 months is highly probable.
  • 2 no position 0.95 The model provides a balanced overview of factors favoring tightening versus factors limiting or delaying it, explicitly stating that it involves weighing these pressures without taking a stance or assigning a probability.
  • 3 very likely 0.95 The answer states that tightening over the next 12 months is 'widely viewed by industry analysts, policymakers, and geopolitical strategists as highly probable' and 'almost certainly' will occur.
  • 4 likely 0.90 The assistant directly assesses the statement by writing: 'The likelihood that advanced-chip export restrictions will tighten further within the next 12 months is high.'
  • 5 somewhat likely 0.80 The model balances arguments on both sides but ultimately concludes that 'the fundamental drivers of strategic competition point toward incremental additions' of restrictions, even if constrained by allied consensus and commercial pushback.

Change over time

No change from the prior run — every model's modal stance held.

Every stance label is a derived judgment over the model's free-text answer, kept auditable against the original transcript in the run's raw data. Method: /methodology.